Welcome to the first edition of “Tarl's Weekly Insights," my take on real estate today. 

In these newsletters, we'll dive deep into the real estate world, share valuable investment strategies, and explore the craziness that life has thrown my way. Whether it's my struggle and journey of overcoming flipping, deciphering the insanity of the market, successful strategies being used in REI, or just me making fun of social media real estate investors...

I can't wait to share it all with you.

 There is a lot of conflicting information out there right now about what is happening in the real estate market. So much speculation, and so many “experts” that know what is really going on. Even though this is unprecedented times, and I can write about all the nuances of each factor playing into the current real estate market and all the “what if” possibilities that can be caused by future fiscal policy, global instability, and additional potential crisis; at the end of the day, the fundamentals of real estate investing still come into play and effect 95%+ of your personal success in this business and any market cycle we may be in.

• First: there is no "national real estate market" there are only individual real estate markets. National trends do not predict local trends, they only help with guessing as to what may come and what may not. Know YOUR market.
• Second: Commercial office, Multi-Family, Single Family, it's all different. Same with value add, development, and short-term rental. Your investment asset class is affected very differently than other asset classes, especially right now.
• Third: It's all math. As Ken McElroy likes to say "Real Estate is math" and I believe this fully. Sharpening our pencils right now, and more importantly, re-evaluating our math when it comes to buying projects in today's market is crucial. What worked before, may not work today. At the end of the day, the investors who come out on top, in the long run, are the ones who MITIGATE RISK the best, not those who take the biggest risks. One of the best ways to mitigate risk is to truly understand your real estate math.

Unless you run a large firm with lots of other people's money invested in it, real estate investing is a very personal business. Most of us are investing for our family's futures, our freedom, and a better quality of life. Since this is the case, it can be very emotional and create fear and hesitancy during times of uncertainty. We all want certainty in a market, especially when we are investing for our family's future. I want you to always ask yourself when you see a news article and/or a social media post, or headline of some sort in regards to our market: How does this affect me personally right now? What does this change in my strategy and investment portfolio? Does this serve me? Answer those questions, adjust if you need to, and then get back at it!

It recently took me 7 months to evict someone…
Flipping houses is easier.

I know...that sucks and you totally feel for me right? Or maybe "That's what you get for being a landlord in the Seattle/Tacoma region." or even "That's what you get for not flipping the house in the first place!" You're probably right! Over the last three years, the Seattle/Tacoma landlord laws have been increasingly getting crazier and crazier, depending on which side of the table you are on. So much so, that recently Seattle has mandated that we must give 180 notice of rent increases, and if rent increases are over a certain percentage, landlords must essentially pay for the tenants' relocation if the tenant needs to move due to increase (essentially).

However! In my case...this tenant renews their lease after living at the property for a full year, then proceeds one month later to stop paying rent completely. Despite working on payment plans, creative strategies with the tenant directly, going through proper channels, and offering cash for keys and move-out assistance, we had to go through the entire legal process to end up 7 months later with large legal fees, technically 8 months mortgage payments and a messed up property. The tenant even went so far as to falsify a number of repair invoices that they “paid” due to their crappy landlord not taking care of the property. BTW those invoices were later sent to the company they impersonated (they used a real business for the fake invoices...), and that business is now suing the tenant for fraud...but I digress.

Landlord laws are changing throughout the US, and I believe they are not going to get any easier for the landlord. However, landlord laws are to protect tenants from “crappy landlords” and from my years of doing this, I have found that almost none of the headaches from the new laws affect us so long as we keep being great landlords...and more importantly...spend A LOT of time and due diligence on screening for great tenants. We messed up on this one, but lesson learned.

The conclusion here is that despite those headaches (mainly my wife's headaches since she is the PM on this house), real estate is MATH with people involved. The math on this property says it's best to sell and move on. $20,000 in legal and lost rents, $15,000 in additional repairs, but $130,000 of remaining equity (cause it was a BRRRR), tells me we are better off moving that money somewhere else for better returns...but where? We will figure that out soon!

As many of you know, I struggle with the addiction of Flipping Houses. Some would say it's a choice, others might say it's a disease. Either way, the struggle is real. This section is my chance to journal my journey to recovery and share what really happens behind the scenes of a recovering house flipper. How do I get through the temptations of wanting to flip my properties and weigh my money today...vs keeping the property and building wealth for tomorrow? Even writing this is hard for me right now, sometimes I feel like I am alone in this fight. That no one else understands the pains of denying yourself the thrill of checking your bank account the day escrow releases funds on your latest disposition...or the freedom of ignoring your financials because there is more money in your bank account than there used to be and it keeps happening every time you flip a house...vs budgeting and reconciling your books regularly like you HAVE to do when keeping rentals so that the banks take you seriously...ugh!

I hope that I have the strength each week in order to open up about my journey to you, so that you can benefit from what I have to go through every day...even right now I am struggling with the fact that I am selling the house with the eviction situation, am I already relapsing this soon into the process? It's hard to say...

My name is Tarl Yarber, and I am a Recovering House Flipper.

My latest video with BiggerPockets is where I break down the reasons I lost $150,000 on two properties in 2022 after the rates went up, and the changes I have made to my strategies since then. My pain is your gain.

Let's stay connected! Find me on social media at @tarlyarber and stay updated with additional videos and content.

That's it for this edition of Tarl's Weekly Insights! Stay tuned for more each week!

Talk Soon,

Tarl Yarber